Metals: LME Outperforms SHFE, LME Tin Rises Over 1%, SHFE Gold Surges Beyond 2% to Hit New Record High [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 17 News: Metal Market: At the close of the day, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE nickel leading the gains with a 0.99% increase, SHFE zinc fell 0.68%, SHFE lead closed flat at 16,750 yuan/mt, and alumina main contract rose 0.46%. Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract fell 0.4%, polysilicon main contract fell 1.33%, silicon metal main contract fell 0.93%, and the European container shipping main contract fell 1.67%. In the overseas market, as of 15:04, only LME copper and LME aluminum fell among the base metals, with LME copper down 0.64% and LME aluminum down 0.15%. LME tin rose 1.09%. The rest of the metals saw slight increases. In the ferrous metals series, most were in the red, with only iron ore rising, up 0.07%. Stainless steel fell 0.04%, HRC fell 0.75%, and rebar fell 0.45%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.26% and coke fell 1.69%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell 0.06%, slightly pulling back after hitting a record high earlier. COMEX silver fell 1.47%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.18%, once hitting 796.7 yuan/gram during the session, continuing to set new record highs. SHFE silver fell 0.23%. As of 15:04 today's market. Click to view SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestic: Liao Min, member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, chaired the 2025 Forum of the Ministry of Finance's International Financial Research Expert Studio on the afternoon of April 14, 2025, listening to experts' views and suggestions on the current international economic and financial situation. At the meeting, Zhang Yuyan, Cui Fan, Lu Feng, Peng Wensheng, Xue Lan, and Feng Zhongping expressed their views and made suggestions on related issues. Liao Min stated that the current century-long changes are accelerating, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is deepening, economic globalization is encountering headwinds, and the global economic governance system is undergoing profound adjustments. The financial sector must embrace the "greatness of the nation," calmly respond to external risks and challenges, and serve Chinese-style modernization and promote high-quality development through high-level international financial cooperation. The International Financial Research Expert Studio effectively serves major bilateral and multilateral financial dialogues, and should further strengthen interaction and exchange with government departments, provide more forward-looking suggestions on new situations and problems in China and the global economy, and further enhance the scientificity and effectiveness of financial work and international financial cooperation. Responsible comrades from 14 departments including the Department of International Economic Relations of the Ministry of Finance attended the forum. MIIT: Organize and carry out the 2025 Industrial Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Diagnosis Service Work. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a notice to organize and carry out the 2025 Industrial Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Diagnosis Service Work. It will focus on industries such as steel, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide, aluminum, polysilicon, lithium battery, cement, ceramics, flat glass, and electronic appliances, as well as information infrastructure such as data centers and communication base stations, organizing energy conservation and carbon reduction service institutions to carry out public welfare energy conservation and carbon reduction diagnosis services for enterprises. On April 17, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2085 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose 0.29%. US March retail sales MoM rose 1.4%, the largest increase since January 2023, expected to rise 1.3%, previous value rose 0.20%. US March core retail sales MoM rose 0.5%, expected to rise 0.3%, previous value revised from 0.30% to 0.7%. US March retail sales surged, with US consumers seemingly engaging in "panic buying" before the imposition of car tariffs. However, this strong growth momentum may fade in the coming months, as tariff policies have led to a bleak economic outlook and a significant drop in consumer confidence, which will prompt consumers to spend cautiously. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated on Wednesday the long-held view of Fed chairmen over the decades that the growth of US federal debt needs to be controlled, but he believes politicians are going about it the wrong way. Powell said the trade policies pursued by the Trump administration will challenge the Fed's ability to complete its employment and inflation tasks this year; the Fed is ready to provide dollar liquidity through its swap lines with other central banks if necessary; the market's expectation that the Fed will step in to calm volatility may be wrong. Traders currently believe that by the end of 2025, the Fed will cut interest rates by about 91 basis points. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Data: Today, the US March building permits annualized total preliminary value, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12, US April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US March housing starts annualized total, Eurozone April ECB main refinancing rate, Eurozone April ECB deposit facility rate, Eurozone April ECB marginal lending rate, Japan March merchandise trade balance - unadjusted, Japan March seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance, Japan March merchandise exports - unadjusted, Australia March RBA foreign exchange transactions - market channels, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Australia March employment population change, New Zealand March trade balance, New Zealand Q1 CPI YoY and other data will be released. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club, Fed Governor Barr will speak, 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Dallas Fed President Logan will have a fireside chat on the US economy and banking, 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a Q&A, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up 0.74% and Brent oil up 0.61%. The latest OPEC+ compensatory production cut plan has been released, with Iraq and Kazakhstan taking the main share. On Wednesday, OPEC's website released an announcement stating that the OPEC Secretariat has received the latest compensatory plans for previous overproduction from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman. According to the plan, from April 2025 to June 2026, OPEC and its allied countries must compensate for 4.572 million barrels of previous overproduction, with Russia compensating 691,000 barrels; Saudi Arabia compensating 15,000 barrels; Oman compensating 97,000 barrels; the UAE compensating 386,000 barrels; Iraq compensating 1.934 million barrels; Kazakhstan compensating 1.299 million barrels; and Kuwait compensating 150,000 barrels. The actual implementation effect of the compensatory production cuts will need to be followed up. Low oil prices are suppressing the expansion speed of US shale oil supply, while Iran's energy exports are also facing the risk of interruption. According to the Q1 survey by the Dallas Fed, the average break-even cost of drilling new wells for US shale oil increased by $1/barrel YoY to $65/barrel, with the marginal extraction costs for large and small enterprises corresponding to WTI $61/barrel and $66/barrel, respectively. After the WTI oil price fluctuation range fell to around $60/barrel, the US Department of Energy estimated that the US crude oil production growth rates for this year and next year would be 300,000 barrels/day and 50,000 barrels/day, respectively, down 90,000 and 100,000 barrels/day from the March report. In addition, the US continues to maintain its sanctions stance on Iran, with US Treasury Secretary Besant hinting that the US is prepared to reduce Iran's energy exports to zero. The risk of interruption to Iran's crude oil exports has further alleviated the crude oil market's concerns about a supply surplus. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review: Aluminum prices rebounded, with prices for raw and processed aluminum diverging [Scrap Aluminum Daily Review]. April 17: SHFE aluminum's center of gravity moved up, aluminum billet processing fees slightly lowered [Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review]. The market mostly held a wait-and-see sentiment, spot prices remained stable [SMM EMM Daily Review]. The high-grade NPI market's center of gravity continued to move down, short-term high-grade NPI prices under pressure [NPI Daily Review]. [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] April 17: Nickel sulphate prices slightly decreased. [SMM MHP Daily Review] April 17: Indonesian MHP prices rebounded. Silicon prices continued to hit new lows, silicon enterprises' production remained under pressure [SMM Silicon Daily Review]. Silver prices first fell then rose, spot premiums slightly lowered [SMM Daily Review]. The rare earth market was polarized, light rare earth prices continued to decline [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review].